Portfolio Economics
Portfolio Economics
Four products. One platform. How the numbers combine.
Revenue by Product (Year 1)
| Product | Model | M6 MRR | M12 MRR | Y1 Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murphy | B2B SaaS | £9,600 | £18,600 | £68,000 |
| SmartBoxes | PAYG Credits | £9,900 | £17,200 | £22,400 |
| Nomos Cloud | Usage + Enterprise | £31,200 | £62,300 | £302,000 |
| P4gent | Consumer Subscription | £2,200 | £3,500 | £18,500 |
| Total | £52,900 | £101,600 | £410,900 |
Key Metrics Comparison
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│ Product │ ARPU │ Margin │ Churn │ LTV │ CAC │ LTV:CAC │├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤│ Murphy │ £600 │ 80% │ 5% │ £11,520 │ £500 │ 23:1 ││ SmartBoxes │ £37 │ 50% │ 5% │ £370 │ £30 │ 12:1 ││ Nomos Cloud │ £150 │ 90% │ ~3% │ £4,500 │ £100 │ 45:1 ││ P4gent │ £22 │ 90% │ 8% │ £250 │ £20 │ 12:1 │└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Portfolio Timeline
M1 M3 M6 M9 M12 │ │ │ │ │Murphy ├─────────●─────────●─────────●─────────● £18.6k MRR │ design │ first │ break │ growth │ │ partners│ revenue │ even │ │ │ │ │ │ │SmartBox ●─────────●─────────●─────────●─────────● £17.2k MRR │ launch │ cap │ break │ deploy │ │ beta │ packs │ even │ service │ │ │ │ │ │Nomos ●─────────●─────────●─────────●─────────● £62.3k MRR │ SDK │ 1st ent │ 2nd ent │ 4th ent │ │ release │ deal │ deal │ deal │ │ │ │ │ │P4gent │ ●────●─────────●─────────●─────────● £3.5k MRR │ │ │ break │ pro │ viral │ │ │ │ even │ tier │ growth │ └────┴────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┘Shared Infrastructure Economics
The products share underlying infrastructure:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│ PRODUCTS ││ Murphy SmartBoxes Nomos Cloud P4gent ││ │ │ │ │ ││ └───────────────┼──────────────────┼────────────────┘ ││ │ │ ││ ▼ │ ││ ┌─────────────┐ │ ││ │ SmartBoxes │◄──────────┤ ││ │ (execution) │ │ ││ └──────┬──────┘ │ ││ │ │ ││ └──────────┬───────┘ ││ │ ││ ▼ ││ ┌─────────────┐ ││ │ Nomos Cloud │ ││ │ (audit) │ ││ └──────┬──────┘ ││ │ │└────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────┘ │ ▼┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│ SUPPLIERS ││ ┌──────────────┐ ┌──────────────┐ ┌──────────────┐ ││ │ Cloudflare │ │ Anthropic │ │ Firebase │ ││ │ ~£500/mo │ │ ~£2,000/mo │ │ ~£200/mo │ ││ └──────────────┘ └──────────────┘ └──────────────┘ │└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘Efficiency Gains
Each product is priced to stand alone. In practice, shared infrastructure means:
| Shared Cost | Standalone Total | Shared Reality | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloudflare | £2,000/mo | £500/mo | 75% savings |
| Anthropic API | £8,000/mo | £3,000/mo | 62% savings |
| Firebase | £800/mo | £200/mo | 75% savings |
| Support tooling | £1,600/mo | £500/mo | 69% savings |
Net infrastructure efficiency: ~£9,000/mo saved vs standalone products.
Break-Even Analysis
| Product | Break-even Month | At Revenue | At Customers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murphy | M4 | £2,400/mo | 4 teams |
| SmartBoxes | M6 | £9,900/mo | 267 users |
| Nomos Cloud | M1 | £4,500/mo | 30 customers |
| P4gent | M3 | £1,200/mo | 55 subscribers |
Portfolio break-even: M2 (second month) at combined revenue of ~£14k/mo.
Capital Efficiency
Year 1 Summary:─────────────────────────────────────────────Total Revenue: £410,900Total Operating Costs: ~£180,000Infrastructure: ~£32,000─────────────────────────────────────────────Net Profit (Y1): ~£199,000─────────────────────────────────────────────
Revenue per £1 of infrastructure: £12.84Revenue per £1 of operating cost: £2.28Sensitivity: Portfolio Scenarios
| Scenario | M12 MRR | Y1 Net | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | £101.6k | £199k | All products hit targets |
| Murphy focus | £120k | £220k | Enterprise wins, others stable |
| Nomos enterprise | £140k | £280k | 2 enterprise deals/quarter |
| Conservative | £60k | £80k | 50% of targets, higher churn |
| Growth investment | £80k | £120k | Higher CAC, faster growth |
What This Means
- Nomos Cloud drives the portfolio: 60% of Y1 net profit from one product
- Murphy has highest unit economics: LTV:CAC of 23:1 means profitable growth
- SmartBoxes is the platform: Lower margins but enables P4gent
- P4gent is the experiment: Consumer bet with asymmetric upside
The platform thesis: Nomos + SmartBox infrastructure enables rapid product iteration. P4gent proves the pattern; future products follow the same path.
What Could Break This
The projections above are the base case. Here’s what happens when assumptions don’t hold.
Failure Mode 1: Nomos Enterprise Deals Don’t Close
Nomos contributes 60% of Y1 profit. The model assumes 1 enterprise deal per quarter at £25k ACV. What if enterprise sales take longer than expected?
| Scenario | M12 MRR | Y1 Net | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (1 deal/quarter) | £62.3k | £302k | — |
| Delayed (2 deals Y1) | £58.2k | £230k | Manageable |
| None close | £54k | £180k | Painful but survivable |
Mitigation: Enterprise is gravy, not the meal. Usage-based revenue from smaller customers provides baseline. Portfolio still profitable without enterprise deals.
Failure Mode 2: SmartBox Churn Is 10% Not 5%
Consumer-adjacent products have unpredictable retention. What if SmartBox monthly churn doubles?
| Scenario | M12 Users | M12 MRR | Y1 Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (5% churn) | 464 | £17.2k | £22k |
| High churn (10%) | 290 | £10.7k | -£8k |
Mitigation: SmartBox has lower margins but serves as platform infrastructure. Even at break-even, it powers Murphy and P4gent. Focus on power users over casual users.
Failure Mode 3: We Can’t Acquire at Stated CAC
Each product assumes specific acquisition costs. What if competition drives CAC up 50%?
| Product | Base CAC | +50% CAC | Impact on LTV:CAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murphy | £500 | £750 | 23:1 → 15:1 |
| SmartBoxes | £30 | £45 | 12:1 → 8:1 |
| Nomos Cloud | £100 | £150 | 45:1 → 30:1 |
| P4gent | £20 | £30 | 12:1 → 8:1 |
Mitigation: Even at +50% CAC, all products remain LTV:CAC positive. Murphy and Nomos have enough margin to absorb higher acquisition costs. Focus shifts to retention over acquisition.
Failure Mode 4: Single Product Dominance
The portfolio is unbalanced: Nomos is ~60% of Y1 profit. What if Nomos succeeds but others fail?
| Scenario | M12 MRR | Y1 Net | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products hit targets | £101.6k | £199k | Portfolio thesis validated |
| Only Nomos succeeds | £62.3k | £140k | Pivot to single-product company |
| Only Murphy succeeds | £18.6k | £40k | Sustainable but not venture-scale |
| Only SmartBoxes+P4gent | £20.7k | £20k | Break-even, needs pivot |
Mitigation: Accept that portfolio diversification is a bet. If one product clearly wins, double down. If none work, infrastructure has value for acquihire or pivot.
Failure Mode 5: Platform Infrastructure Costs Spike
Shared infrastructure (Cloudflare, Anthropic) is priced assuming current rates. What if costs double?
| Scenario | Monthly Infra | Y1 Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Base | £2,700/mo | Included in projections |
| +50% | £4,050/mo | -£16k Y1 net |
| +100% | £5,400/mo | -£32k Y1 net |
Mitigation: Margin buffer exists in all products. Anthropic costs are the biggest variable—architecture supports model switching to hedge.
Summary: What’s Resilient, What’s Fragile
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│ RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT │├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤│ RESILIENT (portfolio survives if these fail): ││ • P4gent doesn't find product-market fit ││ • Enterprise deals take 18 months not 12 ││ • One product's churn is higher than expected ││ ││ FRAGILE (portfolio at risk if these happen): ││ • Nomos usage-based revenue doesn't materialise ││ • Anthropic API costs increase 3x+ ││ • All products miss acquisition targets simultaneously ││ • Team capacity prevents any product from reaching fit │└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘The honest assessment: the portfolio is Nomos-dependent. If Nomos works, everything else is upside. If Nomos doesn’t work, the platform infrastructure still has value, but the portfolio thesis needs revision.