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Graph of Plan

PLG Works For Infrastructure

Product-led growth (self-serve signup, usage-based expansion) will work for developer infrastructure products like SmartBoxes and Nomos Cloud.

The Assumption

We’re betting that developers will:

  1. Sign up and try SmartBoxes/Nomos without talking to sales
  2. Expand usage organically based on value received
  3. Convert to paid through product experience, not sales calls
  4. Refer colleagues based on product quality

The alternative hypothesis: developer infrastructure requires enterprise sales from day one. If true, our low-cost acquisition strategy fails and we need a different GTM (sales team, higher prices, longer cycles).

Evidence

PLG success in developer tools:

  • Vercel, Netlify, Supabase all grew through self-serve signups
  • Stripe famously built on developer word-of-mouth
  • GitHub, GitLab grew bottom-up before enterprise sales
  • Tailwind CSS, Prisma built massive communities before monetising

PLG-friendly signals in our market:

  • Developers try tools before committing
  • AI developers especially experimental—always trying new things
  • Low switching costs mean easy adoption
  • Credit-based pricing (PAYG) aligns with PLG model

Counter-signals:

  • Infrastructure decisions often require security review
  • Enterprises may block unapproved tools
  • Some developers need permission to expense tools
  • High-value deals may still require sales touch

Counter-Evidence

What would prove this wrong:

  • All deals require sales touch to close
  • Self-serve churn exceeds 20% monthly
  • CAC payback exceeds 18 months
  • Free tier users never convert

Warning signs:

  • Signups don’t convert to active usage
  • Users sign up, try once, disappear
  • Enterprise prospects say “we need to talk to sales”
  • Conversion rate under 2%

Impact If Wrong

Products affected: SmartBoxes and Nomos Cloud primarily

GTM impact:

  • Would need to hire sales earlier than planned
  • Would need higher prices to cover sales CAC
  • Would shift focus to enterprise from SMB/indie developers
  • Would slow growth rate significantly

Unit economics impact:

  • PLG CAC: ~$50 (content + free tier costs)
  • Sales-led CAC: ~$500+ (sales time + demos + trials)
  • Need to 10x prices if sales-led, which shrinks addressable market

Runway impact:

  • Sales-led requires upfront investment before revenue
  • Longer payback period strains cash flow

Testing Plan

Key metrics to track:

  1. Self-serve signup rate: Target >100/month by month 6
  2. Trial-to-paid conversion: Target >5%
  3. Expansion revenue: Target >100% net revenue retention
  4. Time-to-value: Target under 10 minutes to first successful run

Experiments:

  • Publish technical content, track signups from content
  • Optimise onboarding for time-to-first-success
  • Test different credit packages to find conversion sweet spot
  • A/B test self-serve vs. “request demo” buttons

Timeline: Validate within first 3 months of public beta

Kill criteria: If fewer than 50 self-serve signups in first 3 months of beta AND conversion under 2%, consider sales-led pivot.

Depends on:

Enables:

Affects milestones:

Supports products:

Assumption

Product-led growth (self-serve signup, usage-based expansion) will work for developer infrastructure products like SmartBoxes and Nomos Cloud.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

Enables

If this assumption is true, these become relevant:

How To Test

Track self-serve conversion rates; analyse expansion revenue patterns; compare to PLG benchmarks.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • Self-serve signup rate over 100/month
  • Trial-to-paid conversion over 5%
  • Net revenue retention over 100%

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • All deals require sales touch
  • Self-serve churn over 20% monthly
  • CAC payback over 18 months

Dependent Products

If this assumption is wrong, these products are affected:

Dependent Milestones

If this assumption is wrong, these milestones are affected:

Decisions Depending On This