SmartBoxes First
We launch SmartBoxes as our first product rather than Murphy, P4gent, or Nomos Cloud.
Context
We have four product ideas, each targeting different markets and requiring different capabilities. With a single founder and limited runway, we can only focus on one at a time. The choice determines how we build audience, validate assumptions, and generate early revenue.
Alternatives Considered
| Option | Why Not Chosen |
|---|---|
| Murphy first | Clearer ICP (agencies) but requires more domain expertise, longer sales cycles, less content potential |
| Nomos Cloud first | Higher enterprise value but longest sales cycle, requires more infrastructure, less PLG-friendly |
| P4gent first | Simpler product but smaller market, requires SmartBox capability first anyway |
| Parallel development | Spreads risk but fatally dilutes focus, none would ship properly |
The Decision
Launch SmartBoxes first, use it to build audience and revenue, then sequence other products.
Why SmartBoxes:
- Dogfooding — we can use SmartBoxes to build SmartBoxes (and Murphy, and everything else)
- Broad market — targets developers AND non-devs, largest potential audience
- Content engine — AI agent stories generate natural content (failures, successes, learnings)
- Lowest sales complexity — PLG-friendly, self-serve, no enterprise procurement
- Horizontal platform — capabilities built here enable other products
Sequencing after SmartBoxes:
- Murphy (months 4-7): Uses SmartBox, targets agencies, builds on content audience
- Nomos Cloud (months 8-12): Longer build, enterprise sales, needs SmartBox maturity
- P4gent (months 6-10): Experimental, needs SmartBox and non-dev validation
Tradeoffs Accepted
What we’re giving up:
- Murphy may have faster path to revenue (clearer buyer persona, agencies have budget)
- Enterprise Nomos deals could be 10x larger per customer
- Opportunity cost if SmartBoxes market smaller than expected
- May not build enterprise muscle needed for Nomos later
What we’re accepting:
- SmartBoxes market is less proven than agency market
- PLG bet may not work for infrastructure
- Need to validate “non-devs want AI tools” assumption
Reversal Triggers
Revisit this decision if:
- SmartBoxes market validation fails after 6 months (no traction, no signal)
- Inbound demand emerges for a different product (agencies asking for Murphy unprompted)
- Strategic partnership requires different product (e.g., Cloudflare wants Nomos integration)
- Competition makes SmartBoxes untenable (E2B raises $50M and dominates)
Early warning signs:
- SmartBoxes signups low despite content effort
- All interest coming from agencies (wrong product first)
- Competitors moving faster than we can match
- Technical challenges consuming all bandwidth
Review Schedule
Next review: 2025-06-01
Review questions:
- Is SmartBoxes showing traction (signups, usage, revenue)?
- Has inbound demand emerged for other products?
- Are competitors invalidating SmartBoxes positioning?
- Is the sequencing still right?
Related
Depends on assumptions:
Affects products:
- SmartBoxes — first priority
- Murphy, Nomos Cloud, P4gent — delayed
Affects milestones:
Context
We have four product ideas (SmartBoxes, Murphy, P4gent, Nomos Cloud). Need to choose which to launch first given single-founder constraints.
Decision
Launch SmartBoxes first, use it to build audience and revenue, then sequence other products.
Rationale
SmartBoxes (1) can be used to build itself (dogfooding), (2) targets a broad market (developers + non-devs), (3) generates content naturally (AI agent stories), (4) has lowest sales complexity. It’s also the most ‘horizontal’ product.
Alternatives Considered
| Option | Why Rejected |
|---|---|
| Murphy first | Clearer ICP (agencies) but requires more domain expertise |
| Nomos Cloud first | Higher enterprise value but longer sales cycle |
| P4gent first | Simpler product but smaller market |
| Parallel development | Spreads risk but dilutes focus |
Tradeoffs
- Murphy may have faster path to revenue with clearer buyer
- Enterprise Nomos deals could be larger
- Opportunity cost if SmartBoxes market smaller than expected
- May not build enterprise muscle needed for Nomos
Reversal Triggers
Revisit this decision if:
- SmartBoxes market validation fails after 6 months
- Inbound demand emerges for different product
- Strategic partnership requires different product
- Competition makes SmartBoxes untenable
Depends On Assumptions
- Agents Need Sandboxes — ⚪ 70%
- Non-Developers Want AI Tools — ⚪ 55%
- PLG Works For Infrastructure — ⚪ 50%